April 17, 2014 @ 5:00 pm – 6:00 pm
Desautels Hall, Rotman School of Management
105 Saint George Street
University of Toronto - St. George Campus, Toronto, ON M5S 2E8

MPI #ShiftDisturbers Speaker Series

For those of us who dare to think more boldly and challenge the status quo, this speakers series invites top thinkers to discuss how they’re making waves in their respective fields.  If you’re interested in acting on ideas, this series is for you!

April 17 – Nate Silver
The Signal and the Noise


Nate Silver’s book, The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t,is a New York Times best seller. Data-based

predictions underpin a growing sector of critical fields, from political polling and hurricane watches to the stock market and even the war on terror. That means it’s important to ask several questions: What kind of predictions can we trust? What methods do the most reliable forecasters use? What sorts of things can be predicted – and what can’t? Silver takes readers on a tour of modern prediction science, uncovering a surprising connection among humility, uncertainty, and good results. It’s an essential read for anyone interested in how data can be used to understand the future.

BIO: Nate Silver is partnering with ESPN to launch a new version of his award-winning website FiveThirtyEight, which will apply his trademark analysis to politics, sports, big data, and more. This new FiveThirtyEight will allow Nate and his team — which will include such luminaries as Malcolm Gladwell — to go deeper into a wider range of areas than he covered at the New York Times. Nate will appear on ESPN as an on-air commentator. Before he came to politics, Nate established his credentials as an analyst of baseball statistics and developed a widely acclaimed system called PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm). This system predicts player performance, career development, and seasonal winners and losers. He is the author of a series of books on baseball statistics, which include Mind GameBaseball Between the Numbers, and It Ain’t Over ’til It’s Over. Nate’s newest book, The Signal and The Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t, is a New York Times bestseller. He has written for Sports IllustratedSlateNew York Sun, and The New York Times. His work has been reported in such publications as The New York TimesNewsweekThe Huffington Post, and Vanity Fair. Nate has been honored by a series of accolades. Most recently, Fast Company named Nate No. 1 of the100 Most Creative People in Business 2013 and Creativity magazine listed him in its Creativity 50 2013. He has also appeared in TIME‘s 100 Most Influential People of 2009 and Rolling Stone‘s 100 Agents of Change. FiveThirtyEight.com won Best Political Coverage in the 2008 Weblog Awards.